EU aid commitments are under threat, but meeting aid targets is still achievable. The AidWatch policy paper explains how.

 Key findings:
  • EU aid commitments are under threat. The preliminary data released by the OECD in April 2013 show that, after adjustments for inflation, barely any progress was made between 2005 and 2012. Official development assistance (ODA) in 2012 was at approximately the same level as in 2005, the year the EU committed itself to spending 0.7% of its GNI on aid by 2015. This lack of progress is compounded by the fact that forward-looking ODA estimates provided by EU member states show that the picture is unlikely to improve in the coming years.
  • If the EU and its member states were to increase aid linearly between now and 2015, it would face a cumulative funding gap of €66.8 billion (see Graph 2). According to our projections based on the data provided by the EC, in 2015 alone, the member states are expected to be €36.3 billion short of the amount required to meet the 0.7% target.
  • Approximately 80% of the total aid gap between 2013 and 2015 is due to four EU memberstates, while the remaining 20% is split between the remaining twenty-three (see Graph4). These countries are Germany (26% of the total gap), Italy (24%), Spain (17%) and France(12%).
  • Although Germany and France are not the worst performers in relative terms, they are the two biggest EU economies and therefore account for a significant proportion of the overall aid flows. Both Italy and Spain are also sizable economies and have also cut their aid levels sharply since the onset of the economic and financial crisis: they currently have some of the lowest aid levels of the EU-15 countries (0.13% and 0.15% of their GNI, respectively).

—> The Aidwatch paper 2013